无限期暂停中澳经济对话，将助推钢铁彩钢卷暴涨开启模式
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2021年5月6日上午，国家发展改革委发表了《国家发展改革委关于无限期暂停中澳战略经济对话机制下一切活动的声明》。
声明提出，基于澳联邦政府当前对中澳合作所持态度，国家发展改革委决定，自即日起，无限期暂停国家发展改革委与澳联邦政府相关部门共同牵头的中澳战略经济对话机制下一切活动。
此消息一出，随之而来的是铁矿石期货价格涨幅达6.81%。众所周知澳大利亚是中国高品位铁矿石的主要进口国，我国对澳大利亚铁矿石的进口依赖度达到70%，在大宗商品不断拉高的背景下，铁矿石又涨上历史高位，对钢铁行业来说到底是利是弊？
首先，从去年开始因为美国印钞行为而导致铁矿石价格水涨船高，而澳大利亚作为全世界最大的铁矿石出口国，自然成为这波铁矿石涨价最大的赢家。但是4月29日，中国宣布将取消部分钢铁产品的出口退税。这意味着中国将大力限制钢铁产能和产量，必将打击对铁矿石的需求，当然这是从中长期的效果来说的，由于市场此前已经消化了预期，所以短期内影响不大，那铁矿石短期内的涨价是完全是可以预见的。
其次，从3-4月唐山、邯郸减产的情况看，产量并没有下去，要完成全年降产量的任务，可能还会有措施出台。由此来看5月份供需仍然是紧平衡，价格创新高的可能很大。
所以，当前暂停中澳经济对话引发的铁矿石涨价与国内限产政策形成强势的博弈，虽然两者都在助推钢价走高，但是若限产力度够大，一定程度上抑制铁矿石的需求，届时澳大利亚与中国的外贸格局发生变化，国内实现碳中和的远期目标也指日可待。
铁矿石是澳大利亚外贸中的一张王牌，他们最担心的就是铁矿石价格崩跌，那中国出重拳反击当然就是要拿澳大利亚铁矿石“开刀”，接下来，国内钢铁限产力度很有可能加强加严，钢价到底能高到什么位置，我们期待一下！
On the morning of May 6, 2021, the national development and Reform Commission issued the statement of the national development and Reform Commission on indefinite suspension of all activities under the China Australia strategic economic dialogue mechanism.
The statement proposed that based on the current attitude of the Australian federal government towards China Australia cooperation, the national development and Reform Commission decided to suspend all activities under the telephone system of China Australia
strategic economy jointly led by the national development and Reform Commission and relevant departments of the Australian federal government indefinitely from now on.
As soon as this news came out, the iron ore futures price rose by 6.81%. As we
all know, Australia is the main importer of China's high-grade iron ore. China's dependence on the import of Australian iron ore has reached 70%. Under the background of rising bulk commodities, iron ore has risen to an all-time high. Are there advantages
or disadvantages for the iron and steel industry?
First of all, since last year, the price of iron ore has been rising due to the printing of money by the United States. As the world's largest iron ore exporter, Australia has naturally become the
biggest winner of this wave of iron ore price rise. However, on April 29, China announced that it would cancel the export tax rebate of some steel products. This means that China will vigorously limit the steel production capacity and output, and will
certainly hit the demand for iron ore. of course, this is from the medium and long-term effect. Since the market has digested the expectations before, it has little impact in the short term. The price rise of iron ore in the short term is completely predictable.
Secondly, from the production reduction in Tangshan and Handan from March to April, the output has not continued. To complete the task of reducing output throughout the year, measures may be introduced. From this point of view, the supply and demand
in May is still in tight balance, and the price may reach a new high.
Therefore, the price increase of iron ore triggered by the current suspension of China Australia economic dialogue forms a strong game with the domestic production restriction policy. Although both are boosting the rise of steel prices, if the
production restriction is strong enough to restrain the demand for iron ore to a certain extent, the foreign trade pattern between Australia and China will change, and the long-term goal of carbon neutralization in China is just around the corner.
Iron ore is a trump card in Australia's foreign trade. What they are most worried about is the collapse of iron ore prices. Of course, China's heavy counterattack is to "cut" Australia's iron ore. next, domestic iron and steel production restrictions
are likely to be tightened. We look forward to where the steel price can be high!
